Complaint to Ofcom Regarding “The Great Global Warming Swindle”

See the following peer reviewed papers for more on this:

• Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688, http://tinyurl.com/2h2p59,
• Foltz, G. R., and M. J. McPhaden (2006). Unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic during 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19703, doi:10.1029/2006GL027394, http://tinyurl.com/3d775p,
• Saunders, M. A., and A. R. Harris (1997). Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1255-1258, http://tinyurl.com/2yo69z.
• Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and H.-R. Chang (2005). Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment. Science, 309, 1844-1846, http://tinyurl.com/3eyzss.

Future hurricane intensity and frequency cannot be predicted with great certainty. However, it is very likely that, in future decades:

• SST will stay above 26 deg C for an increasing period of the annual cycle;
• The upper layer of the tropical ocean will continue to warm, year on year;
• The warming atmosphere will hold increasing amounts of water vapour.

These three factors favour increases in hurricane intensity. It is not clear how or whether wind shear may change in the future. To the extent that such increasingly intense hurricanes persist into the extratropics, we can also expect more intense extra-tropical storms.

The consensus position is summarized in the IPCC AR4 Summary for Policymakers (February 2007):

• It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.
• Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period.
• Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the last half-century.

Finally, it should be further clarified that in a warmer world, such as the AR4 multi-model average world of 2100, the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles is not straightforward. The predominant influence on the warming pattern is the land/sea contrast. This contrast is already clear from observations over several decades, and has been recently explained in terms of changes in the hydrological cycle (Sutton et al. 2007), and this effect must be taken into account when postulating on future temperature gradients. See the following peer reviewed paper for more on this: Sutton, R. T., Dong, B., and J. M. Gregory (2007). Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02701, doi:10.1029/2006GL028164, http://tinyurl.com/2kthny.]

(In breach of Ofcom 5.7)